Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML (-114, FanDuel) · confidence 53.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.1 pts · 0u
Janson Junk (4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs Andrew Alvarez (3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.9; sim total 9.3 against a 9 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +105 / -117 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -114 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.8% vs de-vigged market 52.5%: 1.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.302 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.042. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+105, LowVig.ag) · model 55.1% · edge +6.3 pts · divergence +7.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +105 / -117 | +115 / -145 |
| Total | 9 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-113) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+105, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.05u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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