Houston Astros @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-118, BetRivers) · confidence 53.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.7 pts · 0u
Ethan Pecko (7.88 ERA, 1.88 WHIP) vs Zac Thornton (2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.4; sim total 8.4 against a 9 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +108 / -120 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -118 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.7% vs de-vigged market 53.2%: 0.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Ethan Pecko, Zac Thornton under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.284 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.030, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +108 / -120 | +109 / -120 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-105 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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