Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 run line · confidence 40.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.5 pts · 0u
Seth Lugo (4.61 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) vs Parker Messick (2.50 ERA, 1.01 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.4; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +161 / -183 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -178 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to CLE -1.5 (covers 40.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.2% vs de-vigged market 62.8%: 8.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 40.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.374 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.059, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 78°F at first pitch: run environment x1.030. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +161 / -183 | +164 / -184 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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