Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-117, BetRivers) · confidence 52.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.7 pts · 0u
Braxton Ashcraft (3.59 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs Matthew Liberatore (5.44 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.2; sim total 8.7 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -120 / +108 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -117 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.3% vs de-vigged market 53.2%: 1.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.274 trails league 0.314 by 0.040 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 93°F at first pitch: run environment x1.091 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (60% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 60.4% · edge +7.4 pts · divergence +9.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -120 / +108 | -122 / +110 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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