Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers -1.5 run line · confidence 39.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.3 pts · 0u
Brady Basso (4.50 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.40 ERA, 1.28 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.6; sim total 8.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +184 / -211 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -195 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to TEX -1.5 (covers 39.4% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 51.8%, de-vigged market says 65.8%: a 14.0-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Brady Basso under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.304 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 55.0% · edge +5.7 pts · divergence +7.2 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Texas Rangers ML (-195, BetRivers) · model 39.4% · edge -7.3 pts · divergence -14.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +184 / -211 | +142 / -165 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Texas Rangers ML (-195, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.51u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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