The slate for Tuesday, September 1, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 12 on watch
15 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 12 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Monday, August 31, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 6-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Randy Vásquez (4.02) vs Nick Lodolo (5.24) | 4.9–4.4 | 9.2 / 9.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Logan Webb (3.72) vs Paul Skenes (3.79) | 3.8–4.5 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Sean Manaea (4.55) vs Freddy Peralta (5.11) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.9 / 7.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Spencer Miles (2.92) vs Gavin Williams (3.98) | 3.9–3.8 | 7.7 / 8 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | AJ Smith-Shawver (5.93) vs Jake Irvin (5.62) | 4.9–4.8 | 9.7 / 10 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Troy Melton (1.86) vs Andrew Morris (3.82) | 4–4.3 | 8.3 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Tyler Phillips (3.59) vs Randy Dobnak (1.92) | 4.5–4.5 | 9 / 9.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Robert Gasser (4.59) vs Matthew Boyd (3.99) | 4.8–5 | 9.8 / 10 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Brady Basso (4.50) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.40) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.9 / 7.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Sean Burke (3.32) vs Ronel Blanco (7.71) | 4.9–4.2 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 8:40 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Kyle Bradish (4.03) vs Gabriel Hughes (6.61) | 5.9–5.6 | 11.5 / 11 |
| 9:38 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Gerrit Cole (3.19) vs Grayson Rodriguez (6.03) | 4.8–3.9 | 8.7 / 7.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Jesús Luzardo (3.09) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.50) | 4.4–4.5 | 8.9 / 7.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Michael McGreevy (3.86) vs Eric Lauer (4.78) | 4.7–4.9 | 9.6 / 9 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for BOS inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Chicago White Sox ML (-102, DraftKings) — Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros, 8:10 PM ET. Edge +2.2 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.653. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros. Sean Burke (3.32 ERA) against Ronel Blanco (7.71) is a 4.4-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.5 runs.
- The total: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays. The sim lands on 8.9 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.4 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Over 7.5 (+100, BetRivers) · model 57.8% · edge +7.8 ptsmarket-provingNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays — Over 7.5 (-110, BetUS) · model 54.9% · edge +2.5 ptsmarket-provingToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians — Under 8 (-115, BetRivers) · model 56.4% · edge +2.9 ptsR8-holdToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians — Cleveland Guardians ML (-175, DraftKings) · model 55.8% · edge -7.8 ptsmarket-provingDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins — Under 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +4.5 ptsmarket-provingMiami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals — Under 9.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +4.4 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs — Under 10 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 52.4% · edge +2.6 ptsmarket-provingAthletics @ Texas Rangers — Over 7.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 55.0% · edge +5.7 ptsR8-holdAthletics @ Texas Rangers — Texas Rangers ML (-195, BetRivers) · model 39.4% · edge -7.3 ptsmarket-provingBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies — Under 11 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 51.8% · edge +2.1 ptsmarket-provingNew York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels — Over 7.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 54.8% · edge +3.6 ptsmarket-provingPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Over 7.5 (-110, Bovada) · model 54.8% · edge +2.4 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.