Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (-167, BetRivers) · confidence 56.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.6 pts · 0u
AJ Smith-Shawver (5.93 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) vs Jake Irvin (5.62 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.8; sim total 9.7 against a 10 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -172 / +152 (consensus at board time) · total 10.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -167 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.5% vs de-vigged market 61.4%: 10.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: AJ Smith-Shawver under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.302 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.012, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 97°F at first pitch: run environment x1.107 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -172 / +152 | -175 / +152 |
| Total | 10 | 9.5 (o-120 / u-101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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