Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-175, DraftKings) · confidence 55.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.8 pts · 0u
Spencer Miles (2.92 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs Gavin Williams (3.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–3.8; sim total 7.7 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +154 / -177 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -175 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 49.8%, de-vigged market says 61.9%: a 12.1-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.350 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.037, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.083. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-115, BetRivers) · model 56.4% · edge +2.9 pts · divergence +4.5 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Cleveland Guardians ML (-175, DraftKings) · model 55.8% · edge -7.8 pts · divergence -12.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +154 / -177 | +154 / -177 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-115, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.87u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Cleveland Guardians ML (-175, DraftKings) — WIN (+0.57u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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