Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-121, LowVig.ag) · confidence 52.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.3 pts · 0u
Robert Gasser (4.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs Matthew Boyd (3.99 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–5; sim total 9.8 against a 10 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +110 / -125 (consensus at board time) · total 10.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -121 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.1% vs de-vigged market 53.8%: 2.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.359 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.046, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.087 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (62% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 10 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 52.4% · edge +2.6 pts · divergence +2.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +110 / -125 | -157 / +136 |
| Total | 10 | 8.5 (o-102 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 10 (+101, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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