Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-104, BetRivers) · confidence 51.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.5 pts · 0u
Troy Melton (1.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) vs Andrew Morris (3.82 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.3; sim total 8.3 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -110 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.4% vs de-vigged market 50.6%: 1.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.232 trails league 0.313 by 0.081 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 84°F at first pitch: run environment x1.057. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +4.5 pts · divergence +5.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -110 | -104 / -113 |
| Total | 8.5 | 9 (o-111 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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