Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-102, DraftKings) · confidence 52.6% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.2 pts · 0u
Sean Burke (3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs Ronel Blanco (7.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.2; sim total 9.1 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -106 / -106 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -102 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.3% vs de-vigged market 50.0%: 5.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 flag: Ronel Blanco under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.319 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.653) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -106 / -106 | +111 / -132 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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