Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (-139, BetRivers) · confidence 54.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.4 pts · 0u
Kyle Bradish (4.03 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) vs Gabriel Hughes (6.61 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
Projected 5.9–5.6; sim total 11.5 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -142 / +126 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -139 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.6% vs de-vigged market 57.0%: 4.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Gabriel Hughes under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.066. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 11 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 51.8% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +2.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -142 / +126 | -160 / +136 |
| Total | 11 | 11.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 11 (+101, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.01u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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