New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-178, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 60.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.9 pts · 0u
Gerrit Cole (3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs Grayson Rodriguez (6.03 ERA, 1.52 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–3.9; sim total 8.7 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -182 / +160 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -178 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.6% vs de-vigged market 62.7%: 5.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 60.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.329 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 75°F at first pitch: run environment x1.021. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 54.8% · edge +3.6 pts · divergence +4.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -182 / +160 | -165 / +142 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7 (o+100 / u-119) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-105, Bovada) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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