Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Kansas City Royals ML (-114, DraftKings) · confidence 51.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.3 pts · 0u
Tyler Phillips (3.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) vs Randy Dobnak (1.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.5; sim total 9 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +104 / -118 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -114 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.5% vs de-vigged market 52.5%: 3.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Randy Dobnak under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.286 vs league 0.313 (gap +0.027, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 100°F at first pitch: run environment x1.120. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.7% · edge +4.4 pts · divergence +5.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +104 / -118 | -105 / -110 |
| Total | 9.5 | 8.5 (o-116 / u-103) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date