Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-129, LowVig.ag) · confidence 52.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.9 pts · 0u
Jesús Luzardo (3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.5; sim total 8.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline -130 / +115 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -129 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.9% vs de-vigged market 54.9%: 4.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.324 vs league 0.313 (gap -0.011, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-110, Bovada) · model 54.8% · edge +2.4 pts · divergence +3.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -130 / +115 | -130 / +112 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-102 / u-119) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-110, Bovada) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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