Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (-135, Caesars) · confidence 52.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.9 pts · 0u
Grant Holmes (3.71 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Brad Lord (3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.8; sim total 9.5 against a 9.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -142 / +122 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -135 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.6% vs de-vigged market 56.6%: 8.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.307 vs league 0.317 (gap +0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.088. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -142 / +122 | -140 / +119 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-103 / u-117) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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