The slate for Wednesday, September 2, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 4 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 4 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Tuesday, September 1, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 10-2 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:40 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Casey Mize (3.45) vs Brandon Williamson (6.11) | 4.8–4.2 | 9 / 9.5 |
| 1:05 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Grant Holmes (3.71) vs Brad Lord (3.75) | 4.6–4.8 | 9.5 / 9.5 |
| 2:35 PM ET | Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Jacob Lopez (4.82) vs Cody Bradford (3.42) | 4.3–4.7 | 9 / 8 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Trevor Rogers (4.38) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (5.23) | 6–5.6 | 11.6 / 11.5 |
| 3:40 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Andrew Painter (5.95) vs Taylor Clarke (2.60) | 4.5–5.1 | 9.6 / 9 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Bryce Miller (4.12) vs Patrick Sandoval (4.20) | 4.1–4.9 | 9 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Landen Roupp (4.25) vs Bubba Chandler (4.26) | 4.1–4.7 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Dylan Cease (2.33) vs Joey Cantillo (3.70) | 3.9–3.6 | 7.5 / 7 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Drew Anderson (3.87) vs Dean Kremer (5.60) | 4.4–4.6 | 8.9 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Eury Pérez (3.44) vs Noah Cameron (3.98) | 4.7–4.4 | 9 / 9 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Jacob Misiorowski (1.73) vs David Peterson (5.11) | 4.9–4.3 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Davis Martin (4.32) vs Hayden Wesneski (3.86) | 4.4–4.2 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 9:38 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Cam Schlittler (2.09) vs Reid Detmers (3.54) | 4.3–3.6 | 7.9 / 7 |
| 6:40 PM ET | New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for NYM inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 10:10 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for STL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Minnesota Twins ML (-105, LowVig.ag) — Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET. Edge +0.2 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.572. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs. Jacob Misiorowski (1.73 ERA) against David Peterson (5.11) is a 3.4-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.6 runs.
- The cold bats: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies — Over 11.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.4% · edge +2.1 ptsmarket-provingPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Under 9 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 55.4% · edge +5.7 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs — Over 8.5 (+106, LowVig.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +6.1 ptsmarket-provingChicago White Sox @ Houston Astros — Under 8.5 (+100, Bovada) · model 55.0% · edge +5.0 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.