Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-115, Caesars) · confidence 50.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.4 pts · 0u
Andrew Painter (5.95 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) vs Taylor Clarke (2.60 ERA, 0.88 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–5.1; sim total 9.6 against a 9 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline -130 / +111 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -115 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 45.7% vs de-vigged market 54.4%: 8.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.326 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 55.4% · edge +5.7 pts · divergence +7.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -130 / +111 | -130 / +112 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+101, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.01u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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