Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (-157, Caesars) · confidence 56.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.1 pts · 0u
Trevor Rogers (4.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (5.23 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 6–5.6; sim total 11.6 against a 11.5 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -162 / +137 (consensus at board time) · total 11.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -157 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.6% vs de-vigged market 59.4%: 6.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.298 vs league 0.317 (gap +0.018, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 88°F at first pitch: run environment x1.072 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (58% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 11.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.4% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +3.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -162 / +137 | -160 / +139 |
| Total | 11.5 | 11.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 11.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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