San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-150, Caesars) · confidence 56.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.3 pts · 0u
Casey Mize (3.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Brandon Williamson (6.11 ERA, 1.64 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.2; sim total 9 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -154 / +131 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -150 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.1% vs de-vigged market 58.3%: 3.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Brandon Williamson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.297 vs league 0.317 (gap +0.019, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.086 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (67% air outs), away SP fly-ball (66% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -154 / +131 | -162 / +138 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-105 / u-114) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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