Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Miami Marlins ML (-102, BetUS) · confidence 50.6% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.1 pts · 0u
Eury Pérez (3.44 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs Noah Cameron (3.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.4; sim total 9 against a 9 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -112 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -102 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.0% vs de-vigged market 49.2%: 2.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.294 vs league 0.317 (gap +0.023, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 99°F at first pitch: run environment x1.116 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -112 | -120 / +103 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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