Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-151, LowVig.ag) · confidence 56.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.4 pts · 0u
Jacob Misiorowski (1.73 ERA, 0.75 WHIP) vs David Peterson (5.11 ERA, 1.52 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.3; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -159 / +135 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -151 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.4% vs de-vigged market 59.1%: 4.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.346 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.030, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.088. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+106, LowVig.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +6.1 pts · divergence +6.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -159 / +135 | -110 / -105 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+106, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.06u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date