Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners -1.5 run line · confidence 41.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.5 pts · 0u
Kade Morris (9.82 ERA, 2.11 WHIP) vs Logan Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.5; sim total 8.4 against a 7 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline +186 / -220 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -212 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to SEA -1.5 (covers 41.3% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.7% vs de-vigged market 66.3%: 11.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 41.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Kade Morris under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.345 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.027, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +186 / -220 | +194 / -232 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-120 / u-101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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