The slate for Friday, September 4, 2026: 16 games, no qualifying plays, 11 on watch
16 games on the slate, 16 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 11 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Thursday, September 3, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 2-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:10 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Keider Montero (3.24) vs Logan Allen (3.77) | 3.9–4 | 8 / 8 |
| 6:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Shane Drohan (3.75) vs Rhett Lowder (5.14) | 5.3–4.2 | 9.5 / 9.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Chris Sale (2.06) vs Cristopher Sánchez (2.52) | 4.2–3.8 | 8 / 6.5 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Ryan Johnson (5.47) vs Jared Jones (4.83) | 3.8–5 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Ranger Suarez (3.64) vs Shane Baz (4.01) | 4.3–4.1 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Matt Wilkinson (4.63) vs Nolan McLean (3.06) | 3.8–4.2 | 8 / 8 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Shota Imanaga (4.01) vs Janson Junk (4.11) | 4.7–4.3 | 9 / 8 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Andrew Sears (6.75) vs Foster Griffin (3.21) | 3.7–4.2 | 8 / 8 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Zebby Matthews (4.58) vs Erick Fedde (4.16) | 4.7–5.1 | 9.8 / 9 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Nick Martinez (2.99) vs Trevor Williams (3.93) | 4.4–4 | 8.4 / 8.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Merrill Kelly (5.08) vs Cristian Javier (6.45) | 4.5–4.7 | 9.3 / 9 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Jameson Taillon (5.68) vs Daniel Lynch IV (3.06) | 4.3–4.9 | 9.3 / 10 |
| 8:40 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Andre Pallante (3.57) vs Ryan Feltner (5.84) | 6–5.6 | 11.7 / 11.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Max Fried (2.80) vs Walker Buehler (4.66) | 4.1–3.7 | 7.8 / 7.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Jackson Kent (5.59) vs Blake Snell (2.42) | 4.6–5.2 | 9.7 / 8.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Kade Morris (9.82) vs Logan Gilbert (3.42) | 4–4.5 | 8.4 / 7 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Atlanta Braves ML (+105, Caesars) — Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40 PM ET. Edge +1.7 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.763. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners. Logan Gilbert (3.42 ERA) against Kade Morris (9.82) is a 6.4-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.7 runs.
- The total: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies. The sim lands on 8 runs against a 6.5 line — 1.5 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians — Under 8 (-105, FanDuel) · model 59.4% · edge +8.2 ptsmarket-provingDetroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians — Under 8 (-105, FanDuel) · model 58.4% · edge +7.1 ptsmarket-provingAtlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies — Over 6.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 61.8% · edge +8.7 ptsedge-bandAtlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies — Atlanta Braves ML (+105, Caesars) · model 50.4% · edge +1.7 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles — Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 55.9% · edge +5.4 ptsedge-bandTampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers — Tampa Bay Rays ML (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.1% · edge +1.8 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros — Under 9 (-118, LowVig.ag) · model 58.7% · edge +4.5 ptsmarket-provingToronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals — Under 10 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.2% · edge +3.1 ptsedge-bandNew York Yankees @ San Diego Padres — New York Yankees ML (-110, Caesars) · model 53.4% · edge +1.0 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 53.3% · edge +3.3 ptsR8-holdWashington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-270, Caesars) · model 42.7% · edge -10.0 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.