Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Kansas City Royals ML (-115, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 53.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.1 pts · 0u
Jameson Taillon (5.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) vs Daniel Lynch IV (3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.9; sim total 9.3 against a 10 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +100 / -118 (consensus at board time) · total 10.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -115 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.9% vs de-vigged market 52.0%: 2.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.326 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 98°F at first pitch: run environment x1.112 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (62% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 10 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.2% · edge +3.1 pts · divergence +5.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +100 / -118 | -106 / -110 |
| Total | 10 | 9.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 10 (-113, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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