Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (+105, Caesars) · confidence 50.4% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.7 pts · 0u
Chris Sale (2.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs Cristopher Sánchez (2.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–3.8; sim total 8 against a 6.5 line; park factor 1.01.
Market at board time: moneyline -101 / -115 (consensus at board time) · total 6.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +105 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.4% vs de-vigged market 48.4%: 4.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.326 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.038. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.763) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 6.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 61.8% · edge +8.7 pts · divergence +10.0 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Atlanta Braves ML (+105, Caesars) · model 50.4% · edge +1.7 pts · divergence +4.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -101 / -115 | -101 / -113 |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 (o-120 / u-101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 6.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Atlanta Braves ML (+105, Caesars) — WIN (+1.05u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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