Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 42.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -10.0 pts · 0u
Jackson Kent (5.59 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) vs Blake Snell (2.42 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–5.2; sim total 9.7 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +235 / -285 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (5 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -270 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 42.7% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 54.8%, de-vigged market says 71.3%: a 16.5-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 flag: Jackson Kent, Blake Snell under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.311 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 53.3% · edge +3.3 pts · divergence +4.5 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-270, Caesars) · model 42.7% · edge -10.0 pts · divergence -16.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +235 / -285 | +195 / -231 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-270, Caesars) — WIN (+0.37u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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