New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-110, Caesars) · confidence 53.4% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.0 pts · 0u
Max Fried (2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs Walker Buehler (4.66 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–3.7; sim total 7.8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline -119 / +104 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -110 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.2% vs de-vigged market 52.6%: 1.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.333 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.010. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): New York Yankees ML (-110, Caesars) · model 53.4% · edge +1.0 pts · divergence +1.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -119 / +104 | -105 / -114 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-124 / u+105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): New York Yankees ML (-110, Caesars) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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