Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (+103, LowVig.ag) · confidence 51.1% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.8 pts · 0u
Nick Martinez (2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Trevor Williams (3.93 ERA, 1.42 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4; sim total 8.4 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -113 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +103 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.1% vs de-vigged market 49.1%: 4.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Trevor Williams under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.293 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.025, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Tampa Bay Rays ML (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.1% · edge +1.8 pts · divergence +4.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -113 | -108 / -108 |
| Total | 8.5 | 7 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Tampa Bay Rays ML (+103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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