St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-121, Caesars) · confidence 53.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.1 pts · 0u
Andre Pallante (3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Ryan Feltner (5.84 ERA, 1.55 WHIP).
Projected 6–5.6; sim total 11.7 against a 11.5 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -127 / +110 (consensus at board time) · total 11.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -121 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.2% vs de-vigged market 54.0%: 0.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.311 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 88°F at first pitch: run environment x1.073. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -127 / +110 | -120 / +105 |
| Total | 11.5 | 11 (o+100 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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