Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-105, Caesars) · confidence 51.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.1 pts · 0u
Brandon Pfaadt (3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Ethan Pecko (6.23 ERA, 1.54 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.4; sim total 8.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -109 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -105 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.2% vs de-vigged market 50.5%: 1.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Ethan Pecko under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.276 trails league 0.318 by 0.043 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.7% · edge +7.4 pts · divergence +8.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -109 | -106 / -110 |
| Total | 8.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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