The slate for Saturday, September 5, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 10 on watch
15 games on the slate, 15 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 10 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Friday, September 4, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 7-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:10 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Anthony Molina (3.77) vs Zac Thornton (2.93) | 3.9–4.3 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Javier Assad (3.46) vs Ryan Gusto (3.86) | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 / 8.5 |
| 6:05 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Martín Pérez (3.05) vs Zack Wheeler (3.31) | 4.4–4.2 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 6:10 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Framber Valdez (4.36) vs Parker Messick (2.46) | 3.5–4.2 | 7.8 / 7 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Yusei Kikuchi (5.65) vs Braxton Ashcraft (3.59) | 3.6–4.9 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Dustin May (4.69) vs Andrew Abbott (4.49) | 5.2–4.3 | 9.6 / 9 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Sonny Gray (2.82) vs Chris Bassitt (4.97) | 4.6–4.1 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Drew Rasmussen (2.95) vs Jacob deGrom (4.00) | 4.3–3.9 | 8.2 / 7 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Max Scherzer (6.16) vs Seth Lugo (5.03) | 4.6–4.8 | 9.4 / 9.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Taj Bradley (3.85) vs Anthony Kay (4.28) | 4.7–4.9 | 9.6 / 8.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Brandon Pfaadt (3.49) vs Ethan Pecko (6.23) | 4.1–4.4 | 8.5 / 8.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Carlos Rodón (3.20) vs Robbie Ray (3.14) | 4–3.9 | 7.9 / 7.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Matthew Liberatore (5.41) vs Mason Adams (3.00) | 5.7–6.1 | 11.8 / 11 |
| 9:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Cade Cavalli (3.12) vs Tyler Glasnow (2.79) | 4.5–4.8 | 9.3 / 7 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Jeffrey Springs (6.37) vs George Kirby (4.19) | 4.1–4.7 | 8.8 / 7.5 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-105, BetOnline.ag) — Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers, 7:05 PM ET. Edge +0.6 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.556. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The total: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers. The sim lands on 9.3 runs against a 7 line — 2.3 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The mound mismatch: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros. Brandon Pfaadt (3.49 ERA) against Ethan Pecko (6.23) is a 2.7-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.8 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingSan Francisco Giants @ New York Mets — Under 8 (-112, DraftKings) · model 56.0% · edge +3.2 ptsmarket-provingAtlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies — Under 8 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.6% · edge +2.3 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles — Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +4.1 ptsmarket-provingToronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals — Over 9.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 53.4% · edge +2.2 ptsmarket-provingMinnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox — Over 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 54.1% · edge +4.8 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros — Under 8.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.7% · edge +7.4 ptsmarket-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies — Over 11 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 52.4% · edge +4.0 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 7 (-106, MyBookie.ag) · model 58.1% · edge +6.7 ptsR8-holdWashington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-213, BetOnline.ag) · model 40.6% · edge -8.6 ptsR8-holdAthletics @ Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners ML (-233, BetOnline.ag) · model 42.4% · edge -7.9 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.