Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-115, Caesars) · confidence 52.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.1 pts · 0u
Taj Bradley (3.85 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs Anthony Kay (4.28 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.9; sim total 9.6 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +105 / -120 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -115 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.9% vs de-vigged market 52.8%: 0.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.342 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.014. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 54.1% · edge +4.8 pts · divergence +6.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +105 / -120 | +127 / -140 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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