St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-120, FanDuel) · confidence 50.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.3 pts · 0u
Matthew Liberatore (5.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) vs Mason Adams (3.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP).
Projected 5.7–6.1; sim total 11.8 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -122 / +106 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -120 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.4% vs de-vigged market 53.1%: 5.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mason Adams under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.309 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.084 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (61% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 11 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 52.4% · edge +4.0 pts · divergence +4.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -122 / +106 | -130 / +110 |
| Total | 11 | 11 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 11 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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