Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-121, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 54.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.7 pts · 0u
Sonny Gray (2.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs Chris Bassitt (4.97 ERA, 1.58 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.1; sim total 8.6 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -126 / +110 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -121 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.1% vs de-vigged market 53.9%: 0.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.318 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.000, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +4.1 pts · divergence +5.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -126 / +110 | -136 / +116 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date