Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-175, BetUS) · confidence 61.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.3 pts · 0u
Yusei Kikuchi (5.65 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) vs Braxton Ashcraft (3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
Projected 3.6–4.9; sim total 8.5 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +155 / -184 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -175 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.5% vs de-vigged market 62.3%: 1.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 61.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Yusei Kikuchi under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.270 trails league 0.318 by 0.049 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +155 / -184 | +155 / -184 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-120 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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