San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-157, LowVig.ag) · confidence 56.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.4 pts · 0u
Anthony Molina (3.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) vs Zac Thornton (2.93 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.3; sim total 8.2 against a 8 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +141 / -167 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -157 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.2% vs de-vigged market 60.1%: 6.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Anthony Molina under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.336 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.018, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 78°F at first pitch: run environment x1.034. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-112, DraftKings) · model 56.0% · edge +3.2 pts · divergence +4.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +141 / -167 | +141 / -167 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-112, DraftKings) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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