Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Kansas City Royals ML (-105, LowVig.ag) · confidence 50.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.3 pts · 0u
Max Scherzer (6.16 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) vs Seth Lugo (5.03 ERA, 1.42 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.8; sim total 9.4 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -106 / -110 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -105 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.3% vs de-vigged market 50.4%: 0.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Max Scherzer under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.332 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.014, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 101°F at first pitch: run environment x1.125 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (63% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 9.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 53.4% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +3.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -106 / -110 | -118 / +100 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.75 (o-114 / u-6) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 9.5 (-105, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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