New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-123, BetUS) · confidence 51.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.9 pts · 0u
Carlos Rodón (3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs Robbie Ray (3.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4–3.9; sim total 7.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +110 / -126 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -123 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.6% vs de-vigged market 53.9%: 5.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Carlos Rodón under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.331 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.012, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 85°F at first pitch: run environment x1.059. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +110 / -126 | -110 / -106 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date