Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-150, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 58.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.1 pts · 0u
Dustin May (4.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs Andrew Abbott (4.49 ERA, 1.44 WHIP).
Projected 5.2–4.3; sim total 9.6 against a 9 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -155 / +134 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -150 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.2% vs de-vigged market 58.7%: 1.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.350 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.032, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.090 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -155 / +134 | -155 / +134 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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