Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-152, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 57.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Framber Valdez (4.36 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs Parker Messick (2.46 ERA, 1.02 WHIP).
Projected 3.5–4.2; sim total 7.8 against a 7 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +135 / -155 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -152 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.9% vs de-vigged market 58.8%: 2.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.254 trails league 0.318 by 0.064 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.011. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +135 / -155 | +135 / -155 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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