Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-105, Caesars) · confidence 51.7% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.5 pts · 0u
Eduardo Rodriguez (2.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Peter Lambert (3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.2; sim total 8 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -106 / -110 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -105 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.0% vs de-vigged market 50.4%: 2.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.270 trails league 0.318 by 0.048 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-105, Bovada) · model 60.2% · edge +9.0 pts · divergence +9.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -106 / -110 | -105 / -110 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-105, Bovada) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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