The slate for Sunday, September 6, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 11 on watch
15 games on the slate, 15 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 11 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Saturday, September 5, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 7-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Kyle Harrison (3.45) vs Brady Singer (4.83) | 5.3–4.2 | 9.6 / 8.5 |
| 1:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Tyler Mahle (4.25) vs Aaron Nola (4.93) | 4.8–4.4 | 9.2 / 8 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Payton Tolle (3.23) vs Kyle Bradish (4.01) | 4.3–4.1 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Walbert Ureña (2.85) vs Paul Skenes (3.97) | 3.6–4.5 | 8.1 / 7 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Jackson Jobe (4.63) vs Gavin Williams (3.81) | 3.7–4.2 | 7.9 / 7 |
| 1:40 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Cesar Perdomo (2.25) vs Christian Scott (3.80) | 4–4.3 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Clay Holmes (2.09) vs Tyler Phillips (3.43) | 4.6–3.9 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Eduardo Rodriguez (2.59) vs Peter Lambert (3.66) | 3.8–4.2 | 8 / 8 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Spencer Arrighetti (4.82) vs Randy Dobnak (2.65) | 4.3–4.7 | 9 / 9.5 |
| 2:35 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Ian Seymour (4.21) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.31) | 4.5–4.2 | 8.6 / 7.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Kyle Leahy (3.13) vs Tanner Gordon (5.18) | 5.8–5.7 | 11.6 / 11 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Gage Jump (5.15) vs Bryan Woo (4.25) | 4–4.3 | 8.3 / 7 |
| 4:10 PM ET | New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Gerrit Cole (3.29) vs Michael King (3.11) | 4–3.8 | 7.8 / 7 |
| 6:20 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Bailey Ober (4.37) vs Bryan Hudson (3.03) | 4.4–5 | 9.4 / 8.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Andrew Alvarez (3.47) vs Justin Wrobleski (3.65) | 4.7–4.9 | 9.6 / 8.5 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Atlanta Braves ML (+100, Caesars) — Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 1:10 PM ET. Edge +1.5 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.767. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals. Randy Dobnak (2.65 ERA) against Spencer Arrighetti (4.82) is a 2.2-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.6 runs.
- The total: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners. The sim lands on 8.3 runs against a 7 line — 1.3 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds — Over 8.5 (-103, LowVig.ag) · model 54.0% · edge +3.3 ptsedge-bandAtlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies — Atlanta Braves ML (+100, Caesars) · model 51.5% · edge +1.5 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 51.6% · edge +3.2 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Under 7 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 50.9% · edge +2.6 ptsmarket-provingSan Francisco Giants @ New York Mets — Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.5% · edge +3.4 ptsmarket-provingChicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins — Under 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 55.9% · edge +5.9 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros — Under 8 (-105, Bovada) · model 60.2% · edge +9.0 ptsmarket-provingTampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers — Over 7.5 (+100, Bovada) · model 53.3% · edge +3.3 ptsR8-holdAthletics @ Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners ML (-186, BetRivers) · model 38.6% · edge -7.0 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 8.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.2% · edge +3.9 ptsR8-holdWashington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-190, BetUS) · model 39.6% · edge -7.6 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.