San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-151, BetUS) · confidence 55.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.5 pts · 0u
Cesar Perdomo (2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs Christian Scott (3.80 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.3; sim total 8.2 against a 8 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +135 / -155 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -151 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.6% vs de-vigged market 58.8%: 6.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cesar Perdomo under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.348 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.029, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.010. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.5% · edge +3.4 pts · divergence +5.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +135 / -155 | +145 / -168 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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