Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners -1.5 run line · confidence 38.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.0 pts · 0u
Gage Jump (5.15 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) vs Bryan Woo (4.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.3; sim total 8.3 against a 7 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline +168 / -200 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -186 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to SEA -1.5 (covers 38.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 51.9%, de-vigged market says 64.1%: a 12.2-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.362 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.043, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Seattle Mariners ML (-186, BetRivers) · model 38.6% · edge -7.0 pts · divergence -12.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +168 / -200 | +168 / -200 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-118 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Seattle Mariners ML (-186, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.54u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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