Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-135, Caesars) · confidence 57.7% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.3 pts · 0u
Kyle Harrison (3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs Brady Singer (4.83 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
Projected 5.3–4.2; sim total 9.6 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -143 / +122 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -135 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.8% vs de-vigged market 56.6%: 2.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.348 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.030, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.029. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-103, LowVig.ag) · model 54.0% · edge +3.3 pts · divergence +4.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -143 / +122 | -1 / -127 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-108 / u-123) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.97u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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