Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (+100, Caesars) · confidence 51.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.5 pts · 0u
Tyler Mahle (4.25 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs Aaron Nola (4.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.4; sim total 9.2 against a 8 line; park factor 1.01.
Market at board time: moneyline -108 / -110 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +100 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.3% vs de-vigged market 49.8%: 3.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.330 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.012, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 76°F at first pitch: run environment x1.022. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.767) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Atlanta Braves ML (+100, Caesars) · model 51.5% · edge +1.5 pts · divergence +3.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -108 / -110 | -108 / -109 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Atlanta Braves ML (+100, Caesars) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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