Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-104, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 51.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.3 pts · 0u
Ian Seymour (4.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.2; sim total 8.6 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline -108 / -108 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.6% vs de-vigged market 50.0%: 2.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.310 vs league 0.318 (gap +0.009, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+100, Bovada) · model 53.3% · edge +3.3 pts · divergence +3.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -108 / -108 | -108 / -108 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+100, Bovada) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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