St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-127, BetUS) · confidence 52.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.2 pts · 0u
Kyle Leahy (3.13 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Tanner Gordon (5.18 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).
Projected 5.8–5.7; sim total 11.6 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -132 / +115 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -127 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.4% vs de-vigged market 55.0%: 4.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.323 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.005, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 89°F at first pitch: run environment x1.075 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (62% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -132 / +115 | -135 / +116 |
| Total | 11 | 11 (o-110 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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