Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-140, Caesars) · confidence 56.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.3 pts · 0u
Bailey Ober (4.37 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Bryan Hudson (3.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–5; sim total 9.4 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +125 / -146 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.8% vs de-vigged market 57.2%: 2.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Bryan Hudson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.335 vs league 0.318 (gap -0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.016. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +125 / -146 | +125 / -146 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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